【成人小说 人简介】

郭士祺，上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院副教授。博士毕业于日内瓦国际关系及发展高等研究院，曾在哈佛大学、联合国大学世界发展经济学研究所访问。主要研究领域为发展经济学、应用微观经济学，有多篇文章被国内外权威期刊接收或发表，包括The Economic Journal，Journal of Development Economics （2篇），Games and Economic Behavior, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Journal of Law and Economics, Journal of Comparative Economics（2篇），《经济研究》（3篇)。主持国家自然科学基金青年项目，上海市浦江人才计划。

【成人小说 摘要】

This paper quantifies the impact of rural-urban migration on agricultural fires, a major source of air pollution in China, by combining satellite remote sensing records with population census data. We identify the effect using an exogenous trade shock that increased labor demand in manufacturing sectors of migrant destination prefectures, drawing workers from their origin counties via past migration networks. We find that a one-percentage-point increase in rural labor emigration in 2010 leads to a 5% rise in agricultural fires from 2011 to 2017. This effect is driven by reduced agricultural labor, which incentivizes fire use as a labor-saving land-clearing method. Empirical evidence supports this mechanism, showing no significant effects from non-agricultural labor emigration or migration to nearby areas where return for farming remains feasible, and the most pronounced impact during peak harvest seasons. After uncovering this unintended environmental externality of rural-urban migration, we demonstrate that institutional reforms, such as recent land titling programs, mitigate the issue due to their potential to facilitate efficient farmland reallocation and promote large-scale farming during labor outflows, proving more effective than nationwide administrative bans on open-field burning.

本文通过结合卫星遥感记录与人口普查数据，量化了农村向城市迁移对农业焚烧的影响，农业火灾是中国空气污染的主要来源之一。我们利用一个外生的贸易冲击来识别这种效应，该冲击增加了农民工目的地城市的制造业劳动力需求，通过过去的迁移网络从原籍县吸引了劳动力。研究发现，2010年农村劳动力外流每增加一个百分点，会导致2011年至2017年焚烧秸秆着火点增加5%。这一效应是由农业劳动力减少驱动的，劳动力减少促使农民使用火灾作为一种节省劳动力的土地清理方法。实证证据支持这一机制，表明非农业劳动力外流或迁移到附近地区（在这些地区，返回务农仍可行）没有显著影响，并且在收获高峰期的影响最为显著。在揭示农村向城市迁移这一意外的环境外部性后，我们证明了制度改革（如近期的土地确权计划）能够缓解这一问题，因为它们在劳动力外流期间促进了农田的高效重新分配和规模化农业的发展，比全国范围内的露天焚烧禁令更为有效。